Assessing the coming citrus season.
As every year, with Easter behind us, the citrus packhouses across our country become busy as the season starts in earnest. This is also the time of our annual export estimates. These figures indicate moderate growth. Total citrus volumes available for export are expected to increase – continuing an upward trend from 203.9mil 15kg cartons last year by approximately 3% to 5%, reaching between 210 and 215 million 15kg cartons for the 2026 season. It should be noted that the estimate assumes a late Mandarin crop that follows its recent trajectory. The late Mandarin estimates will be released at a later stage.
We are giving these estimates, mindful of the uncertainties facing the industry, including the hostilities in the Middle East and its potential impact on demand, shipping routes, as well as questions regarding fuel availability and input costs. A fragile ceasefire has been reached, but even with this development, a return to some sense of normality will not be immediate. However, with proactive decision making and adaptability by all players across the value chain, steady growth towards another strong export season remains achievable.
The CGA has, given all the uncertainty and risk in the global markets, invested in generating data to support market intelligence and logistics monitoring to support the supply chain and ensure stability.
Overall, the 2026 crop points to a balanced season with fruit of high quality.
- Lemons: 45.9 million 15kg cartons (+10%), driven by new plantings and recovery from earlier hail damage.
- Navel oranges: 30 million 15kg cartons (–5% vs 2025, but +10% on 2024), comprising
13.4 million Early/Midseason and 16.6 million Late Navels. - Valencia oranges: 63 million 15kg cartons (+1.6%), with regional variation and additional volumes from Zimbabwe, Botswana and Mozambique.
- Grapefruit: 15.7 million 17kg cartons (+16%), supported by favourable growing conditions.
- Early Mandarin-types: Satsumas at 1.5 million cartons; Novas at 5.6 million (–3%); Clementines at 6.2 million (–4%).
Given global instability, it is critical that, as an industry, we should focus on factors within our span of control. A stronger and engaged partnership with government should foster a focused effort towards improved market access, which should include deepening access to already existing markets, the resolution of the EU plant health constraints, and increased private-sector participation in logistics, particularly in rail. Especially viewed from within the current pressures, these elements are essential to securing our sector’s future growth.
Exports and conflict
The conflict in the Middle East has now continued for more than a month and its ripple effects are certainly being felt globally. This coming citrus season initially posed promise: the Northern Hemisphere’s citrus harvest was expected to conclude earlier than usual, creating openings for South Africa. It is now clear that the season will require thoughtful coordination and strengthened collaboration.
The Middle East has long been an important market for our citrus. Disruptions in both demand and in shipping–as well as the international knock-on effect of shipping delays–are risks that everybody should be cognisant of.
Shipping rates, too, have risen sharply. At the same time, certain Gulf markets maintain price ceilings on retail citrus, limiting the ability of exporters to recover these higher logistical costs.
Global tensions are also affecting several key inputs across agricultural economies. Fuel and fertiliser prices will be affected. We are already receiving reports of constrained fuel supply domestically, along with a notable fuel price increase in April. Given that fuel represents a significant portion of farming operational costs, this is an area that warrants close attention.
Our industry is facing mounting pressures. Attention must be given to factors which are within South Africa’s control. We must secure and unlock the potential of our citrus export sector. A number of constraints can be addressed.
Enhanced market access remains a high-value opportunity. Continued engagement with government and trade partners to improve tariff conditions in China, India, and the United States would unlock meaningful growth and diversify our risk profile.
Logistics performance remains central to industry competitiveness. Improving efficiency within the national port and rail network is essential, and it should be supported by much greater urgency on expanding private-sector participation.
Securing a better future of our industry through resolving of the European Union’s restrictive and scientifically unsubstantiated phytosanitary requirements for South African citrus is also something within South Africa’s control.
In the coming season, coordinated export planning will be crucial. The CGA will continue providing timely, data-driven market intelligence to help exporters and growers make informed decisions
Our industry has faced highly challenging seasons before, and each time we have emerged stronger. With clear focus, unified effort, and continued innovation, we will succeed.
Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO, Citrus Growers Association
