Managing destruction

Preventing the next wildfire disaster starts before the spark

Hotter conditions, prolonged drought and heavier vegetation fuel loads are raising the stakes of wildfire management. As we have seen, when low humidity and strong winds combine with a dry landscape, fires can spread rapidly, burn intensely and overwhelm efforts to contain them. The consequences extend from destroyed homes and livelihoods to damaged ecosystems and increasingly dangerous, expensive firefighting operations.

Globally, climate change and changing land use are worsening the threat of extreme fires. A United Nations Environment Programme assessment projects an increase in extreme fires of up to 30% by 2050. Dangerous com-binations of heat, dryness and wind are becoming more likely in many regions, putting greater pressure on prevention and preparedness. www.unep.org

South Africa faces these pressures along-side water scarcity, invasive alien vegetation and expanding human activities near fire-prone landscapes.

Drought can dry vegetation while reducing the water available to fight fires. Woody invaders add substantial fuel, and develop-ment exposes more homes, infrastructure and economic assets to potential destruction.

El Niño adds a current concern. The World Meteorological Organization's October 2026 update reports a strengthening event, which can contribute to hotter, drier conditions in parts of Southern Africa. Regional forecasts require close attention because below-average rainfall can create conditions for a difficult fire season, while sudden changes in wind and humidity can rapidly escalate an existing blaze. wmo.int

The scale of the challenge cannot be under-stood through incident counts alone.

The number of fires does not tell us enough about the danger. We also need to under-stand how large they become, how intensely they burn and how difficult they are to control. A changing fire environment demands a changing management response.

More fuel, greater exposure and less room for error

Invasive alien vegetation is a significant man-agement concern. Woody species including acacias, pines, eucalyptus and hakea can accumulate substantial biomass, increasing the material available to burn. Research into the 2017 Knysna fires found that invasive alien vegetation contributed to increased fire severity, illustrating how the condition of a landscape can amplify a disaster. link.springer.com

Changing land use creates further com-plexity. Forestry plantations and dry agricultural crops present different fuel con-ditions, while settlements beside combustible vegetation place people and property within reach of a spreading fire. Managing these risks requires coordination across property boundaries and sectors.

For vulnerable households, small busi-nesses and public institutions, losses can exceed their capacity to recover. Destroyed grazing, crops, timber and infrastructure also affect employment and the economies that depend on them.

The spark is only part of the story

Human activity is the dominant source of unwanted fires. Arson, escaped planned burns, and unattended cooking or warming fires can all provide ignition. Light-ning is a natural source, including during thunderstorms around the beginning of the rainy season.

Whether ignition becomes disaster depends on fuel, weather, terrain and preparedness. Understanding those interactions is essential to reducing damage.

It is equally important to recognise that fire has an ecological role. Grasslands, fynbos and savannas depend on periodic fire to maintain ecological processes and thrive. The objective is to manage appro-priate fire while preventing unwanted fires in the wrong conditions from threatening lives and livelihoods.

Practical priorities include controlling invasive vegetation, managing hazardous fuel loads, maintaining appropriate protection measures and coordinating response plans

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South Africa has structures, but readiness must follow

Fire Protection Associations help landowners coordinate prevention, training and shared resources. Working on Fire con-tributes to prevention, suppression and awareness while supporting employment and skills development.

The National Veld and Forest Fire Act provides a framework for fire management, including landowner responsibilities. Never-theless, shortages of resources, uneven implementation and limited understanding of these responsibilities weaken preparedness.

Forecasting and satellite technology provide information that can help managers anticipate difficult conditions. However, a seasonal warning only becomes useful when somebody understands its implica-tions and acts.

An early warning must lead to an early decision. Managers need to understand what the forecast means for their land, their communities and their resources, then prepare before conditions become dangerous.

Practical priorities include controlling invasive vegetation, managing hazardous fuel loads, maintaining appropriate protec-tion measures and coordinating response plans. Sound management of wetlands and riparian areas belongs within wider land-scape resilience.

Education is another major gap. Wildfire awareness needs greater attention in schools, and relevant tertiary programmes should better equip graduates to interpret warnings and manage risk.

Research must reach the people making decisions

Fire management involves changing biolo-gical and physical conditions, alongside human behaviour. Research helps explain these interactions and gives managers a basis for adapting practices.

Recent experience in Tanzania's Southern Highlands demonstrates its practical value. Satellite data helped identify high-risk areas, followed by discussions with villagers about the causes of unwanted fires. The project contributed to regional fire-management bylaws, training and customised village plans. Manuals were translated into Swahili, and villagers learned to manufacture affordable firefighting hand tools.

South African research priorities include protecting settlements beside fire-prone vegetation, improving fire-danger warnings and investigating suppression methods less dependent on scarce water. Understanding how fire regimes may shift across different biomes is also important.

Studying for a changing fire environment

At NMU's George campus, forestry and con-servation programmes incorporate fire management. Opportunities include a fire-management specialisation within the Advanced Diploma in Forestry, risk manage-ment at BSc Honours level, and wildfire-related Master's and doctoral research.

Industry relationships help identify prac-tical challenges, with some partnerships providing financial support for applied research. Academic expertise covers both the ecological effects of veldfires and their management.

These pathways are relevant to forestry, conservation and agricultural graduates, working land managers and officials respons-ible for public preparedness.

We need more people who can investigate these risks and translate evidence into better management. Remaining agile means con-tinuing to learn as conditions change. The decisions that prevent a disaster need to be made before the fire begins.

Prospective students can explore relevant qualifications and research pathways through Nelson Mandela University's postgraduate information page.